Max Scherzer will all but walk away with the American League’s Cy Young award this year, but does that automatically make him Detroit’s new ace?
If Detroit maintains a hold on the AL’s best record, the Tigers would earn home field advantage through the playoffs and the right to play the winner of the AL’s Wild Card game in the ALDS. But in a five-game series where virtually anything could happen, who will Detroit turn to in Game One—and again in Game Five if necessary?
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Scherzer’s 19 wins this season have opened some eyes to his skill set and the future that he could enjoy. And while Scherzer has pitched deep into games and has factored into 20 of his 26 starts, Detroit’s true horse has scuffled for most of the season after a disappointing showing in the 2012 playoffs.
So far in 2013, Justin Verlander has posted a pedestrian 12-9 record with a 3.68 ERA and while many new-age baseball minds are quick to discredit the “win” as a representative stat, Verlander has seen drops in almost every other category.
Though 173 innings this year, Verlander has struck out only 166 hitters, after striking out 239 in 2012 and 250 in 2011. He has already eclipsed last year’s mark of 60 walks (62 in 2013), and has yet to record his first complete game of the season after doing so six times in 2012.
Verlander has spoken about his mechanical flaws and has made it clear that no injury or ailment is to blame for his uncharacteristic season, but the proof is in the velocity when it comes to analyzing what is different about the 2013 Justin Verlander.
Here’s a look a Verlander’s average fastball velocity from 2011-2013, provided by FanGraphs.
Credit: FanGraphs
It’s easy to see the average velocity dropping from the mid 90’s to somewhere in the low 90’s, but what’s even more glaring are the maximum velocity readings that show Verlander approaching the 100 mph mark much less frequently. The story on Verlander has always been that he’s a guy that gets better as he goes. Be it in a single start or over the course of the season, we could always expect to see Verlander reach his peak at the height of his workload. So for a guy that has relied on a 100 mph fastball late in games and late in October, it is alarming to see that Verlander hasn’t thrown a single pitch in triple digits in 2013.
Credit: ESPN.com
To add to the struggles, Verlander has lacked much command this season, and is throwing slower pitches in worse locations. A look by ESPN.com at Verlander’s Batting Average Against by location, shows that hitters are finding it easier to lay off of Verlander’s better offerings and are have great success when they get fastballs in the strike zone.
Jim Leyland recently urged Verlander to find the arrogance that he once pitched with and grasp onto it, motiving the big righthander to act like he’s the best pitcher in baseball—which he very well could be. But Leyland will have a tough decision on his hands when Detroit begins post season play. Scherzer has proven all season that he can win and he can give the team a chance to win, while Anibal Sanchez‘s 2.61 ERA speaks for itself in terms of positioning yourself against an opponent.
It’s hard to imagine seeing Verlander take the ball in Game Three of a playoff series, knowing that Scherzer and Sanchez could be ready to back him up in games four and five, but maybe less pressure for the once Cy Young and MVP would do well for his confidence. In my opinion, there’s nobody in the big leagues (with the exception of Clayton Kershaw) that I would rather hand the ball to with the season on the line. Verlander is a proven winner and a proven warrior, despite the struggles that have set him back in 2013.
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